CCF Newsletter for Thurs, May 15 th
 

Your twice-monthly newsletter from
Canada-China Focus.

05/15/25
International Relations
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The Hill Times: "The art of hedging a deal"

Published: May 12 2025
Written by: Wenran Jiang



More than a month into President Donald Trump‘s “Liberation Day” trade war against the world, the United States and China have managed a temporary truce. But the prospect of a protracted confrontation between the planet‘s two largest economies continues to cast a long shadow over the global economy while trapping many nations in difficult dilemmas: submit to U.S. demands, risk retaliation from China, or seek middle ground at the risk of displeasing both sides.  

Washington‘s strategy pressures allies to restrict ties with Beijing as part of a tariff deal. Reports suggest the U.S. is urging Canada to curb trade with China—a tactic echoing the “poison pill” tactics of Trump‘s first term. As he begins his tough negotiations with Trump, will Prime Minister Mark Carney comply again as his predecessor Justin Trudeau did in the Canada-U.S.-Mexica Agreement, or resist to protect sovereignty? Meanwhile, Beijing has issued stark warnings to countries contemplating concessions, framing compliance as a hostile act. The U.S.-China trade war has metastasized into a global reckoning, forcing countries to weigh economic survival against strategic submission.  

The fallout is evident. Nations reliant on Chinese rare earth minerals face supply chain disruptions, while exporters dependent on U.S. markets grapple with tariffs. Yet Washington‘s assumption that allies can cleanly decouple from entrenched economic partnerships remains flawed. Japan‘s hybrid vehicle sector, reliant on Chinese rare earth magnets, faces new U.S. export controls. South Korea‘s semiconductor exports to China—an economic pillar—plummeted as Washington pressured Seoul to restrict tech transfers. These cases reveal Asia‘s hedging trend: nations cling to U.S. security alliances while quietly maintaining close ties to Chinese markets.  

 

 

 

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Perhaps no world leader can ever be completely sure how an encounter with Donald Trump will play out, but Canada’s Mark Carney had grounds to be especially wary before heading to the White House for his first post-election meeting with the US president.

For months now, Trump has waged a campaign of diplomatic and commercial intimidation against his northern neighbour, launching a trade war and belittling Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Shortly before the briefing, the US leader once again took to social media to post a debunked figure that the US is “subsidizing Canada by $200 Billion Dollars a year” and to complain the country was receiving “FREE Military Protection”.

But from the moment the pair shook hands, it was clear the tone of the meeting would be remarkably cordial, with Trump praising Carney as “a very talented person” and Carney describing Trump as a “transformational” president.

The mood grew less relaxed as Trump again falsely claimed that the US was “subsidizing” Canada and repeated his calls for Canada to become the 51st state.
Tariff

Global Current: "Embracing China's economic rise"

Published: April 30 2025
Written by: Jostein Hauge
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China’s rise in the world economy is arguably the most significant economic and political event of the 21st century. It’s reshaping global trade and geopolitics at astonishing speed. Much of the West, especially the US, has responded with alarm. Donald Trump’s tariffs are the clearest example. But the hostile response to China’s rise is misguided. The rise of China is not a threat to global stability — it’s a development that we should welcome.

China’s rise to economic superstardom has been rapid and without precedent. The country’s dominance in global trade underpins this rise: China recently became the first country in history to record a trade surplus of $1 trillion.

This dominance has been made possible by an export-led industrialisation push. China plays a part in practically all global manufacturing industries. It now accounts for more than 35% of global manufacturing, a number which is expected to increase to 45% by 2030.

 

 

 

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Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada: "Powering the Future: Quebec's Critical Mineral Strategy and Asia Pacific Collaboration Amid Shifting U.S. Policy"

Published: May 8 2025
Written by: Alexandre Veilleux, Anastasia Ufimtseva

In October 2020, the Quebec government unveiled its Plan for the Development of Critical and Strategic Minerals 2020-2025, the first of its kind in Canada, to leverage the province’s mineral resources and become a leader in the global energy transition. Rich in critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel and with an abundance of hydroelectricity and skilled labour, Quebec has invested billions in developing the fast-growing lithium-ion battery sector to power electric vehicles (EVs). 

Quebec’s ambition to become a hub for critical minerals and EVs gained momentum under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EV tax credit implemented during the Biden administration. Under the IRA, 80 per cent of the critical minerals contained in EV batteries have to be processed or mined in North America by 2027, increasing to 100 per cent by 2029. The proposed integration of the North American critical mineral and EV battery markets has contributed to a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Quebec, offering significant export opportunities for companies within an integrated supply chain. 

 

 

 

Toronto Star: "Jobless rate rises as tariffs take 'bite' out of Canada's labour market in April"

Published: May 9 2025
Written by: Craig Lord The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — Canada‘s labour market was showing cracks in April as the early impacts of the tariff dispute with the United States started to appear in economic data.

Economists expect that weakness could persist through the summer in an uncertain trade war and some argue it could push the Bank of Canada off the sidelines and toward an interest rate cut in June.

The national unemployment rate ticked up to two tenths of a point to 6.9 per cent in April, Statistics Canada said Friday, returning to a recent high seen in November.

The hit came after the United States imposed tariffs starting in March on non-CUSMA compliant imports from Canada as well as sector-specific levies on steel and aluminum and automobiles.

 

 

 

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As Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the federal government has its work cut out for it following a tumultuous few months in domestic politics — not just on the tariff front with the U.S., but also with the world's second-largest economy. 

In the fall, Canada followed in the footsteps of then-U.S. president Joe Biden in implementing an additional 100 per cent surtax on Chinese-made electric vehicles — a move critics say makes less sense now considering the fractured relationship with our southern neighbours, our climate goals and China's counter-tariffs on Canadian canola farmers. 

"That was a dumb policy, and we … followed suit by demonstrating our allegiance [to the U.S.]," said Jessica Green, political science professor at the University of Toronto who focuses on climate change and global climate politics. 

 

 

 

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Global News: "Why the U.S.-China tariff pause could signal 'good news' for Canadians"

Published: May 12 2025
Written by: Ari Rabinovitch

As stock markets rallied after news of a 90-day trade war truce between China and the U.S., some stakeholders remain cautious about what it could mean for the Canadian economy and consumers.

“Canada‘s industries have been hard hit by this trade war … any de-escalation at this time is good news for global trade,” says the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in a statement to Global News.

“We‘ll be monitoring the China-U.S. discussion closely in the months ahead, as the details of any final agreement will matter.”

In a statement, the Retail Council of Canada also said the group, “welcomes this development, but we‘re not popping the champagne just yet.”

“The 30% tariff that the U.S. continues to impose on itself is deeply damaging—not only to American businesses and consumers but also to global supply chains already facing significant disruption,” the council said.
Science

CTV News: "Canada could soon have G7's first small modular nuclear reactors. Here's what that means"

Published: May 9 2025
Written by: John Vennavally-Rao

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For the last 15 years, there‘s been a lot of talk about the possibilities of small modular reactors – mini nuclear plants that could be factory built and power an industrial site or a small city. Now, Ontario is pressing ahead with a plan to build four of them – the first in the western world.

“A lot of governments are watching to see how this goes,” said Brendan Frank with the group Clean Prosperity, a non-profit.

Significantly smaller in size and power output compared to a traditional nuclear plant, small modular reactors (SMRs) are based on the same science. Fission is used to generate heat, which is then used to make electricity.

“SMRs are basically shrunken down technology, about a third or quarter in size, but have many of the same principles,” said Frank.

 

 

 

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Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada: "How Subnational Government Support is Helping China Build Its Version of Starlink"

Published: May 9 2025
Written by: Xiaoting (Maya) Liu, Steve Zhu

China is making significant strides in its quest for space superiority. One notable initiative, the SpaceSail network — a mega-constellation of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites designed to deliver global broadband internet services — is set to become operational in select countries later this year. Nearly 100 satellites have already been launched, with an additional 500-plus expected to be in orbit by the end of 2025. SpaceSail’s parent company, Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST), aims to have the network fully operational by 2030 with a constellation of some 15,000 satellites. 

SpaceSail recently made headlines by securing service contracts with Brazil, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, as well as Thailand. Once operational, SpaceSail will stand as the only comparable rival to Starlink — the world’s first and largest satellite network developed by SpaceX.
Environment
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The Guardian: "Canadians protest imports of US toxic waste amid Trump tariff war"

Published: Mar 6 2025
Written by: Erin McCormick

The proposed expansion of a Quebec landfill that accepts hazardous waste from the United States has ignited a turf war between the Quebec provincial government and local leaders, who say they oppose putting US trash into a local peat bog.

Local leaders are protesting against the move – saying the province is capitulating to a US company in the midst of a tariff war between Canada and the United States.

For a year, the Montreal suburb of Blainville has been refusing to sell a piece of city-owned forest land to facilitate the expansion of Stablex, a US-owned company that treats and stores hazardous waste, including 33,000 tons exported from the US in 2023. Tech billionaire Bill Gates is listed as a stakeholder in the company.
Culture

CBC: "Dance connects these Asian Canadians to culture, and to others"

Published: May 10 2025
Written by: CBC News

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May is Asian Heritage Month, and in the wake of the tragedy at a Vancouver festival celebrating the contributions of the Filipino community, the importance of celebrating Asian Canadians is front and centre. 

Dance plays a vital role in many Asian cultures, and for those living abroad, it can help connect them back to the place they or their ancestors came from.

People have migrated from Asia to Canada for the last two centuries, according to the federal government, "bringing our society a rich cultural heritage."
Next newsletter release:
Thursday, June 5th, 2025

 

 

 

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